GAM470 Name__________________

April 19, 2005 Homework
  1. On the Super Bowl you find the following prop.

    2. Coin toss is heads -102

    Coin toss is tails -102

    Assuming a fair coin, what is the expected value of either side of this bet?

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

  2. What probability of winning is required of a handicapper to break even over the long run against the normal –110 line?

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  3. Your probability of winning against the point spread is 54%. What is your expected value when laying –105?

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  4. In today’s baseball game the Orioles to win pays +175. You feel the probability they will win 40%. What is the expected value of this bet?

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  5. In another baseball game the line on the Padres is –300. You feel this bet has a 5% advantage. What is the probability of the Padres winning?

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    Problems 6,7:

    You see the following prop on the Super Bowl

    Total Solo & Assisted Tackles by Michael Lewis

    Over 5.5 -130

    Under 5.5 EV

    You feel the expected number of tackles is 5.2.

  6. Using the Poisson distribution, what is the probability of less than 5.5 tackles? Please use the table below.

    7. Tackles

    Formula

    Probability

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    Total

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  7. What is the expected value of both bets?

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    Problem 8,9:

    You see the following prop on the Super Bowl

    Will there be a safety?

    Yes +600

    No -850

    You feel the average number of safties per game is 0.05.

  8. What is the probability of zero safties?

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  9. What is the expected value of both bets?

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    Problem 10,11:

    You see the following prop on the Super Bowl

    Total number of different Eagles to score:

    Over 3 -115

    Under 3 -115

    You feel the average number of Eagles to score is 2.5.

     

  10. Use the following table to determine the probability of under 3, exactly 3, and over 3 Eagles to score.
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    Eagles to Score

    Formula

    Probability

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    Total

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  11. What is the expected value of both bets?

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  12. Your sock drawer has 8 white socks and 5 black socks. You pull out 4 of them at random and without replacement. What is the probability you get a three of a kind (3 of one color and 1 of the other)?